If things do not change dramatically, by 2050, solar power will replace coal as the leading source of electric power in the world, so says the IEA (International Energy Agency). The cost of establishing solar power plants is dropping rapidly. If this situation persists, we will see photovoltaic plants providing up to 16 per cent of global electricity in the near future.
According to the IEA, concentrated power facilities, using mirrors to reflect the rays of the sun to a central tower, could generate an additional 11 per cent of electricity.
At present, coal generates approximately 36 per cent of electric power in the world. However, this figure varies widely depending on the region. In South Africa and China, coal generated electricity can reach as high as 80 per cent, while in Japan, it is only roughly around 25 per cent.
The IEA has laid out a roadmap on how solar panels, such as those installed on rooftops, could provide 16 per cent of the electricity demand by 2050.
“The rapid cost decrease of photovoltaic modules and systems in the last few years has opened new perspectives for using solar energy as a major source of electricity in the coming years and decades,” says Maria van der Hoeven, Executive Director of IEA.
Using their own proprietary data, Bloomberg also forecasts: “solar power will take a bigger share of the energy market, shake up the industry by 2030, with panels reaching a six per cent share of electricity from 0.3 per cent now.”
The agency also observed that since 2010, more solar power was added compared to what was done in the previous four decades. This gives the agency a reason to predict that up to 4,000 gigawatts of PV capacity could be installed by 2050.
What would this mean?
This would increase the solar power capacity up from the 150 gigawatts installed at present. But it will also require a hefty average investment of $225 billion every year. Thankfully, support from various governments around the world can be counted on.
A U.N. climate summit held last week has more than 120 heads of state giving their backing to measures that will speed up financing for renewables. They also agreed to formulate a new emission treaty which is scheduled to be signed off next year.
The rapid fall of photovoltaic prices was driven mostly by China’s aggressive manufacturing. increasing demand in countries such as Germany also contributed greatly to solar panel price decline.
According to the International Energy Agency, there are about 100 megawatts of capacity being traded online at present on a daily basis. Considering that there are already 150 gigawatts of solar capacity installed globally, the price of PVs could continue to fall down.
Therefore, it is not difficult to imagine the whole world getting at least 16 per cent of its energy demands form solar power plants. Thus the IEA reckons that the boom in solar PV, in both distributed rooftops and solar farms will continue for the next decades.
