If the 2014 solar PV industry statistics are considered, financial analysts will agree that it is one of the years in which all kinds of predictions for the solar PV industry were made. From January to December, predictions and speculations ran high. At the close of the year, analytical firms generally saw 2015 as a time of boom and future growth for the renewable energy industries.
The first firm that was courageous enough to make its first predictions for 2015 is Taiwanese solar PV analyst Energy Trend. This firm boldly stated that the 2014 worldwide demand for solar PVwas 44 GW because of the concerted efforts of countries like the United States and Japan. Experts say this is due to China not performing as well as expectations predicted.
Energy Trend’s prediction for 2014 at 44 GW is in sync with the forecasts of other analytical firms such as NPDSolarbuzz and IHS. These two firms predicted that the total demand in 2014 would be somewhere between 40 and 45 GW at the year’s end.
Solar PV industry in Asia Pacific Region at all time high
It is surprising though that Energy Trend’s numbers were released at the same time as Solarbuzz came out with its first publication since it was acquired by IHS. The latest Solarbuzz Asia Pacific Major PV Markets Quarterly predicts that in this quarter, the Asia Pacific Region is likely to reach 10 GW for the first time.
The United States, China and Japan biggest movers in solar pv industry
Jason Huang, Research Manager of Energy Trend, speaking for his firm, predicts that worldwide demand for solar energy in 2015 can reach 51.4 GW. The United States, China and Japan will act as the prime moving markets for this increase in demand.
These three markets will collectively represent approximately 57% of the total solar PV industry. However, Huang cautions that the percentage sharing of the three markets will be less than what they had in 2014 largely because of the rise of other emerging markets.
Energy Trend also identified other major trends for the solar PV industry for 2015:
- The intensification of solar cell competition, with module prices expected to rise again.
- The falling of prices of polysilicon with wafer seeking for higher-efficiency products.
- The multi-Si material hitting a bottleneck, with Mono-Si + PERC becoming a focal point for 2015’s efficiency increase.
- The top ten module makers in 2015 taking up more than 50 per cent, with their shipment totalling to about 3.5 GW.
- The 3 major variables namely financial policies, trade war, and electric grid development with their operational risks being diffused globally.
Concerning the fourth prediction, Energy Trend believes that a single manufacturer may be able to break the 5 GW thresholds. It should be noted that for a company to make it to the top 5, it will have to attain at least 3.5 GW for that year.